The Obama administration is boasting, with an exclamation point, that six million people have signed up for health insurance on the federal Obamacare exchange. This is less of a milestone than the administration hoped for.

How much less? Avik Roy of Forbes clears up a crucial point:

“Just because someone has signed up for coverage doesn’t mean someone has coverage. In order to be formally enrolled in coverage, you have to pay the first month’s premium.

“Most insurers predict that around 20 percent of signer-uppers will fail to pay; that percentage appears to be substantially higher for people who were previously uninsured. For example, a McKinsey survey found that among those who were previously insured, 86 percent paid their first month’s premium; among those who were previously uninsured, only 53 percent had.

“If we assume that 80 percent of the 6 million will ultimately pay up, that’s 4.8 million enrollees. And we don’t know what percentage of those enrollees were previously uninsured. After all, the core goal of Obamacare is to increase the number of Americans with health insurance. Thus far, surveys indicate that the vast majority of enrollees were previously insured.

“If we assume, beyond the available evidence, that as many as half of Obamacare exchange enrollees were previously uninsured, we end up with 2.4 million uninsured exchange enrollees.”

Or maybe less. The Obama administration cannot or will not say how many, if any, of the new sign-ups previously were uninsured. And, as Roy points out, this is all before the double- and maybe triple-digit premium increases expected next year. Some triumph for the “Affordable” Care Act – disruption for many, for the benefit of few. Enough pain inflicted on Americans – it’s time to choose something that works.