7.1 million vs. the high hopes of yesterday

President Obama says that 7.1 million people have signed up for coverage on government health insurance exchanges under Obamacare. It was so exciting to the White House that his staff invented a new vulgarity to describe their feelings. The president did a rhetorical touchdown dance and said all debate is now over because 7 million people, rather than 6 million or 3 million, signed up and because the government’s balky website crashed for only part of the deadline day.

So President Obama has declared it a political win, but is Obamacare a health care victory for Americans? About 5.2 million people still have been thrown off insurance plans they had already chosen and liked because Obamacare declared those plans “substandard.” This still means people are losing access to life-saving care. Health care inflation has not slowed but may be increasing. Premiums are about to skyrocket. There’s evidence that many people forced to buy on the Obamacare exchanges are mostly paying higher premiums than they would have. If you like your plan, you won’t necessarily be able to keep your plan. Or your doctor. And the majority of people whose lives will be disrupted by Obamacare because of mandates on employer-provided coverage haven’t been hit yet because the president keeps breaking the law to delay those mandates.

But 7 million people signed up, so President Obama had his day to crow.

Keep this in mind, however: We do not know how many of those people were uninsured. The administration cannot or will not tell anyone. As Michael Tanner put it in the New York Post:

“Estimates vary, but Rand Corp. data suggest that barely a third of enrollees were previously uninsured. If so, that means fewer than 2 million Americans have actually gained insurance nationwide because of ObamaCare.”

Two million fewer uninsured people? Decent, but nowhere near what the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said Obamacare would do. Just two years ago, CBO said that the law would provide coverage for 14 million previously uninsured people this year (the estimate is on page 18), nine million through exchanges. Even if every one of the 7.1 million sign-ups had been uninsured, instead of the more likely 2 million, Obamacare has fallen miserably short of expectations.