Suppose you’re not worried about the problems with the Obamacare “exchanges,” the government-controlled websites at which you buy government-mandated health insurance. Four states’ exchanges have failed already, and the federal exchange that serves Wisconsin is only partially functional, but you’re confident because you get your coverage through your job. You’re safe, right?

No.

I have long pointed out that the woefully misnamed “Affordable” Care Act set up Obamacare to incentivize employers to dump their employees onto the exchanges. Now, even Obama-friendly news outlets such as NPR are explaining why that is likely:

“The idea that employers might drop their health plans and replace them with a ‘defined contribution’ for employees has been around for years. It's one way for employers to control their expenses in the face of the relentlessly rising costs of health care.

“Now that the Affordable Care Act has made non-company plans more accessible and affordable by creating online marketplaces where people can shop for coverage, the idea is gaining traction.”

This wouldn’t be painless or clean, NPR admits:

“If employees do drop coverage, it could be a huge change from the way things are now. The employer-paid subsidies to monthly premiums that employees get for employer-sponsored group coverage currently aren't taxed as income to the worker.

“If an employer dropped group coverage and instead offered employees $5,000 to buy an individual plan on an exchange, workers would owe income tax on that amount. Employees earning less than 400 percent of the federal poverty level (right now that's $45,960 for an individual or $94,200 for a family of four) could qualify for tax credits to reduce the cost of their monthly insurance premium, but workers who earn more than that wouldn't benefit.”

This could be coming to a job near you: Obama administration estimates from 2010 were quietly predicting that about half of Americans on employer-sponsored coverage would lose it under Obamacare. So when President Obama said that if you like your health plan, you can keep your health plan, he really was telling the lie of the year.