WASHINGTON — U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson noted Tuesday corrected figures about how many Guatemalans could potentially flee Guatemala for the United States after the national PolitiFact organization reported that a Guatemalan newspaper misreported a survey on the subject.

After the committee he chairs, the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, held another in a series of more than 30 hearings on all aspects of border security and the humanitarian crisis at our southwest border, Senator Johnson said he believes it’s important to examine root causes that have motivated more than 495,000 unaccompanied minors or people traveling as families to cross our border illegally or to present themselves at ports of entry seeking asylum.

A key question is how many people could try entering our country. One piece of evidence is a survey of Guatemalans conducted last winter by two nonprofits and reported in early May in one of Guatemala’s leading newspapers, Prensa Libre.

PolitiFact, however, reports that the newspaper “inaccurately presented survey results” when it reported that “39.2 percent of Guatemalans intend to migrate, and 85 percent said they would do it to the United States” — a combination that suggested as much as a third of Guatemala’s population, or 5.8 million, could intend to move here.

PolitiFact quoted a professor at an American university who helped conduct the survey; she provided PolitiFact with survey results that her group had posted to its Twitter account as a “clarification” a few days after Prensa Libre published its story. The tweet appears to have gained little attention: That newspaper story remained uncorrected as of Saturday.

So what is the correct number? How many people in Guatemala, a major source of the wave of migrants that overwhelmed our Border Patrol and immigration court systems, could conceivably arrive if we do not resolve the crisis?

Pollsters asked Guatemalans, “Do you have intentions to go to live or work in another country in the next three years?” The answer: 25.3% of respondents said yes. Out of a country of 17.6 million people, that means about 4.4 million people have at least some level of intention to leave Guatemala in the next three years.

Exactly how many of those would come to the United States is tougher to tell, but another question by the pollsters found that, of Guatemalans who’d considered emigrating the past 12 months, a whopping 85.1% cited the United States as their destination of choice. If that same proportion applies to the 25.3% of Guatemalans who pollsters say have at least some intention of emigrating, that could mean that as many as one-fifth of Guatemalans, or 3.9 million, could conceivably be looking to leave their home country.

“My goal is to gather and provide accurate information in the problem solving process,” said Senator Johnson on Tuesday. “Gathering data on the border crisis has been and remains challenging.  A case in point is the poll: I regret relying on Prensa Libre’s account and acknowledge the PolitiFact correction. Surveys and polls are only projections meant to provide some insight into future behavior — in this case, how many Guatemalans could potentially flee for the United States. I continue to be alarmed at this potential outmigration from Guatemala into our country.”

A presentation of the polling results released by the group that conducted the survey is available here.

###