Is This Any Way to Run a Budget?
Originally appeared in The Wall Street Journal
Unlike the federal government, families and private-sector businesses have to keep spending in line with earnings. To do so, they budget, estimating what their income will be and making sure their planned expenditures don’t exceed it.
The federal government is the largest financial entity in the world. You would think its budgeting would take the most time and effort and involve more detail than any other organization. You would be wrong.
I come from the private sector, and I know the time, effort and detail businesses put into preparing budgets. If the numbers are good, a budget review meeting can be a breeze. If not, managers have a lot of explaining to do. When it comes to spending American taxpayer dollars and the money we borrow to cover massive deficit spending, the analysis and oversight by lawmakers is woefully inadequate.
The 535 members of Congress could be considered the board of directors, and the news media as the watchdog auditor, of a financial entity that spends more than $7 trillion a year. Yet when I asked my colleagues and the media a few years ago during an omnibus spending debate how much the federal government spent in total, no one offered an answer. My guess is most simply didn’t know because we never talk about it and there is no formal process to review total spending. We appropriate less than 25% of total federal outlays in any given year, and the rest, mandatory spending and entitlements, is on autopilot.
This lack of attention has allowed spending to soar 63%, from $4,447 billion in fiscal 2019 to a projected $7,266 billion in fiscal 2025. In January on these pages I proposed three options for returning to a more reasonable pre-pandemic level of spending. All used projected 2025 spending for Social Security, Medicare and interest. Other spending in these baseline options was adjusted to account for population growth and inflation. Adjusting Bill Clinton’s 1998, Barack Obama’s 2014 and Donald Trump’s 2019 total outlays results in baseline budgets of $5,496 billion, $6,199 billion and $6,496 billion, respectively. The Senate budget resolution used Mr. Trump’s 2021 budget projection for 2025, yielding a baseline amount of $6,061 billion.
Since we’ve already accounted for population growth and inflation in all these options, why are we spending $770 billion to $1.77 trillion above these previous years’ population- and inflation-adjusted outlays? In the private sector, that is exactly what business managers would have to explain to upper management in a line-by-line budget review. We should apply the same rigorous examination to federal spending.
A group of senators representing various factions of the Republican conference and a similar group of House Republicans should join a budget review panel with members of the administration to listen to representatives of the departments explain each line-item expenditure. Spending that didn’t exist before the pandemic or that exceeds previous years should be considered for elimination or reduced. Spending that can’t be defended or has been identified by the Department of Government Efficiency as waste, fraud or abuse should be cut.
No one can predict what level of spending would survive this scrutiny, but it would be significantly lower than current levels. Democrats have no interest in reducing spending levels, so Republicans will have to use the rescission process for discretionary spending reductions and budget reconciliation for mandatory spending.
This review can be done expeditiously. The 2025 budget has 2,481 individual expenditure line items, which could be reviewed in time to provide congressional committees the information they need to draft legislation for rescission packages and fulfillment of budget reconciliation instructions. Returning to a pre-pandemic spending level combined with enacting pro-growth tax polices and repealing the economy-crushing tax increase scheduled for 2026 could make balancing the federal budget achievable.
The election of President Trump and Republican majorities in the House and Senate have given America a historic chance to reduce the size, scope and cost of the federal government. With federal debt totaling $36.4 trillion and interest expense exceeding defense spending, it’s vital that the U.S. seize this opportunity.
Mr. Johnson, a Republican, is a U.S. senator from Wisconsin.